Austrian Early Career Conference 2024

Contribution:
Talk

Authors:
Hannah Theresa Rüdisser

Affiliations:
Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria Graz, Graz, Austria

Title:
Modeling CMEs as Large Scale Magnetic Flux Ropes

Abstract:
Accurate forecasting of space weather impacts from coronal mass ejections (CMEs) demands a profound understanding of their structure and evolution. New observations, facilitated by rising solar activity and missions such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter, provide unprecedented insights into the global shape and structure of CMEs. The 3D Coronal Rope Ejection Model (3DCORE) assumes an empirically motivated torus-like flux rope structure that expands self-similarly within the heliosphere, influenced by a simplified interaction with the solar wind environment, and carries along an embedded analytical magnetic field. We utilize an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit the in situ magnetic field observations, which allows us to generate estimates on the uncertainty of model parameters. This model can be used to quickly determine physical parameters of an event, advancing research on the global magnetic structure of CMEs. Anticipated contributions from upcoming missions like PUNCH, Vigil, and potential future constellation missions further promise advancements in space weather forecasting.